Is it just a matter of time?

Proponents, with state wins legalizing marijuana under their belt, say yes.

Marijuana saleswoman Marissa Dodd (L) bags up a sale for a customer at Dr. Reefer's marijuana dispensary at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado. Colorado, along with Washington, Oregon, Alaska and Washington, D.C., have legalized the recreational use of pot. Chris Hondros/Getty Images

By Brianna Gurciullo, Karen Mawdsley and Katie Campbell,

WASHINGTON - Advocacy groups have poured millions of dollars into legalizing marijuana in states across the country.
One of the most powerful groups - Marijuana Policy Project, based in Washington, D.C. - was behind successful measures in Alaska and Colorado to allow recreational use. MPP organizers hope to replicate those efforts in five states next year, a potentially significant undertaking for the effort to end marijuana prohibition.

It's all part of a well-funded, well-organized machine. Proponents have found so much success because they have learned how to secure financial backing, take advantage of changing attitudes, and address fears about legalization. Legalization efforts could appear on ballots in about a dozen states next year. Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia now allow medical marijuana use. Washington and Oregon join Colorado, Alaska, and D.C. as places where adults already can smoke pot recreationally.

New Jersey and Delaware have legalized medical marijuana. A bill to do the same in Pennsylvania could get a vote this year.
In Congress, lawmakers have started to voice positions on pot, and more support state medical marijuana laws. Presidential candidates are talking about the issue.
Leaders in the pro-legalization movement say the questions are no longer whether the federal government will treat marijuana like alcohol, but when, and not whether the states will legalize, regulate, and tax pot sales, but how.

"We're past the tipping point," said Keith Stroup, founder of the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws. "There are all kinds of signs that people have figured out that prohibition is coming to an end."
Legalization foes aren't conceding any time soon.
"I don't think that legalization is inevitable," said Alan Shinn, executive director of the Coalition for a Drug-Free Hawaii. "There's other alternatives to legalization. We should really be taking a public health approach to this, especially with our youth."

And that's still a sticking point. The Drug Enforcement Administration classifies marijuana as one of the most dangerous drugs, "with no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse."
The disparity between states with liberal marijuana laws and the decades-old federal prohibition of its sale and use has caused confusion in law enforcement and tension in the business world. Pro-legalization groups said that's their goal: Put so much pressure on the federal government by legalizing state by state that the discrepancy finally ends.

"I actually consider 2016 to be what I call the game-over year because there's a good chance that a bunch of states will legalize marijuana," said Bill Piper, national affairs director for the Drug Policy Alliance. "We're reaching the point where the federal government is going to have no other choice than to change with the times."

Strategic with resources

In the 1970s, NORML led the reform fight. Now, two other organizations help run multimillion-dollar campaigns to support state measures to allow medical marijuana, decriminalize possession of small amounts of the drug, or fully legalize adult use.
The Marijuana Policy Project, founded in 1995, has emerged as a political powerhouse with robust fund-raising, effective campaign messaging, and expertise in ballot initiatives and legislation.

The Drug Policy Alliance launched in 2000 to end the "War on Drugs." The group claims marijuana arrests disproportionately affect racial minorities and drain law enforcement resources.
The groups and their campaigns have benefited over decades from philanthropists. And they have honed their strategies.
Allen St. Pierre, who became executive director of NORML a decade ago, said proponents of marijuana-law reform mirror tactics from of women's rights, civil rights, and gay rights movements.

"We organized. We petitioned our government peacefully for grievances. We went to the courts and asked for relief," he said. "We've used science and language to cajole, persuade, and effectively win what is called in the military a 'hearts and minds' campaign."
Mason Tvert, MPP communications director, said that the public has become more accepting of medical marijuana and supportive of removing criminal penalties, but that fear still surrounds "marijuana for fun."

Several ballot measures to legalize recreational use failed between 2002 and 2010. Ultimately, he said, people "just thought it was too dangerous of a substance."
Survey results inspired a change in tactics: MPP polls indicated that people were more likely to support legalization if they thought pot was less harmful than alcohol. That became the argument behind the campaign in Colorado to legalize recreational marijuana. When that measure passed in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, Colorado became a model for other state efforts. All took the campaign name "Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol."

Falling dominoes

The different groups advocating for legalization don't always agree on the methods or details. But Stroup said the liberalization of marijuana laws has followed a pattern. Western states lead the way - reducing possession penalties, allowing residents to use medical marijuana, or eliminating all penalties and creating systems to regulate sales. Then momentum builds in the East. Progress is slower in the Midwest, and even more elusive in the South.

MPP prefers to run ballot-initiative campaigns instead of pushing bills in state legislatures. But such a victory could be the movement's next turning point, an important step because only about half of the states allow citizen-initiated ballot measures.
"We have to just simply work it every year . . . bringing in good witnesses, provide elected officials with the best information, and, over a period of time, as they become more comfortable with the concept, then we'll be winning it with state legislatures," Stroup said.

In 2016, Rhode Island and Vermont could become the first states to pass bills legalizing marijuana. Polls show support in both states.
Time could become the movement's greatest ally. Sixty-four percent of those between 18 and 34 support legalization, compared with 41 percent among those 55 and older, Gallup reports.
Still, "There is a huge group of people who are kind of fishy on it," said Sarah Trumble, senior policy counsel at Third Way, a think tank in Washington, D.C. Many in this group support legalizing marijuana for medical but not recreational use.

"Values are really what drive them," said Trumble. "There's a compassion value that ties into medical marijuana."
She says as more states legalize, more Americans admit using marijuana and it loses its stigma, public opinion will keep shifting toward legalization. 

Into the mainstream?

Members of Congress are finally beginning to support research and accept state medical programs. The issue has gone from "an untouchable, unthinkable, third-rail issue to a legitimate, mainstream topic of debate," said Dan Riffle, MPP's director of federal policies.
But the path of least resistance is unclear.
Riffle said some lawmakers have tried to address the issue incrementally, through bills such as those to permit banking by marijuana businesses, or let Veterans Affairs doctors recommend marijuana for patients in states where it's legal.

"But then you're going to have other folks who say, 'Look, rather than passing seven, eight, 12 different bills . . . let's just grapple with the underlying problem, which is the conflict between state and federal marijuana laws," he said.
The Respect State Marijuana Laws Act would do that. It would amend the Controlled Substances Act to protect anyone producing, possessing, distributing, dispensing, administering, or delivering marijuana in states where to do so is legal. The bill has six Republicans and eight Democrats as co-sponsors.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D., Ore.) predicts the U.S. government will treat marijuana like alcohol within a decade. "With a new administration, with several more states legalizing, with public opinion solidifying, and with more and better research, I think in the next administration and the next Congress or two, we'll be in a position to just basically say, 'States, do what you want to do,' " he said.