How the Trump Administration Is Likely to Proceed on Weed Legalization

By Gabriel Bell

Donald Trump steps in as the president of a nation increasingly at odds with federal marijuana policy.

Thanks to a growing pro-pot majority, 28 states and the District of Columbia have passed laws supporting legalization. After the 2016 election, over 60% of the population—about 193 million Americans—will have access to weed for medical use under state law. Twenty percent will be able to purchase it for recreational use.

Trump—who claims he’s never used pot himself—has a history of progressive statements on legalization. He told Fox New he was “a hundred percent” for it in February 2016,  mirroring his his call for the decriminalization of all drugs in the 1990s. As campaign season wore on, however, he pivoted.

“I say [legalization is] bad. Medical marijuana is another thing, but I think it’s bad, and I feel strongly about it,” he told the CPAC Conference in June. “In terms of marijuana and legalization, I think that should be a state issue,” he continued. “If they vote for it, they vote for it… But, you know, they have got a lot of problems going on right now in Colorado. Some big problems.”

Trump was cuddlier toward legalization during an October rally. “I think medical [marijuana] should happen—right? Don’t we agree? I think so. And then I really believe we should leave it up to the states.” He softened towards Colorado as well. “I really think that we should study Colorado, see what’s happening.”

Practically speaking, Trump’s begrudging, wait-and-see ambiguity mirrors that of the Republican congressional leadership, the official GOP platform, and the even the Obama administration. Looking at his statements alone, you could expect a continued hands-off federal policy or even progress toward top-down legalization. Look at Trump’s cabinet picks, however, and you’ll see something else.

The man who would be most responsible for developing and prosecuting U.S. drug policy, prospective Attorney General Senator Jeff Sessions, has taken a hard line against weed in word and deed throughout his career. Just this year, Sessions’ said that weed is a “very real danger” and “not the kind of thing that ought to be legalized.” All legal reforms to date are a “tragic mistake” for Sessions and, “good people don’t smoke marijuana.”

Further down the table, other cabinet picks could also prove problematic for legalization efforts. A holdover from the Obama years, acting Drug Enforcement Administration head Chuck Rosenberg has been permissive at times, though he did maintain a schedule of raids against legal grow operations and once called medical marijuana a “joke.”

Trump pick for Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price voted down almost every pro-pot bill or amendment that came through Congress during his tenure as a representative from Georgia. As the head of HHS, he would have influence over pot’s medical status, determining whether there would be penalties for prescribing doctors and legal suppliers. Even incoming Chief of Staff Reince Priebus has stated he’s “not a fan” of state-level legalization.

How exactly this clash between Trump’s past statements and the positions of his cabinet will play out is unclear. Yes, they work at his pleasure, but Trump has shown signs that he’ll delegate policy development to his team. None of this is promising for legalization efforts.

One ray of hope here is that Trump has a habit of altering his positions to fit his audience. Now that his audience is all Americans—89% of whom favor legal medical marijuana and 57% of whom favor of full legalization—there’s a decent chance for more federal-level fence sitting and state-level legalization. But honestly, with this guy who knows.