Sam Becker
Soon to be President Trump speaks during a thank you rally in Ladd-Peebles Stadium | Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images
The marijuana
industry
is facing an existential threat. Of course, cannabis has always faced
an existential crisis, when you think about it. But facing an incoming
President Trump presents a whole new set of obstacles. During the 2016
election, voters really didn’t have an incredibly solid idea of where either candidate stood
on the topic of marijuana. While neither directly said they wanted to
pull the plug on legalization, there were fears that the incoming
president could take a drastically different approach than President
Obama had.
Even now, with Trump headed to the White
House, we still don’t know what’s going to happen. So far, it doesn’t look good. Trump nominated Jeff Sessions, a man who has remained staunchly opposed to marijuana, to be his
Attorney General. That was a bad sign.
But Trump is also a businessman who adores adoration. It’s hard to
think he would want to use the federal government to squash the cannabis
industry, put thousands out of
work,
erase massive amounts of tax revenue, and go against public opinion.
For a man who wants to be respected, this would likely not do the trick.
As such, here we are — still without an inkling as to what might
happen.
A new report from MJBizDaily
has taken the initiative, however. The report lays out the five ways in
which President Trump can handle the marijuana industry, ranging from a
full-on shutdown to full-fledged support. On the next several pages, we
lay out those five scenarios.
Here are the five ways things could shake out for the marijuana industry under Trump’s reign.
1. Trump pulls the plug
Jars full of medical marijuana | Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
This is the doomsday scenario: The Trump administration shuts
everything down. Seeing as how cannabis is still a Schedule I drug, this
is well within the realm of possibility. The federal government could
shut down growers, processors, sellers, and even prosecute people for
their involvement.
Of course, this would be wildly unpopular. Tens of
thousands of jobs would be lost, and many businesses would be sunk.
This seems unlikely, but it could happen. Republicans tend to like
allowing states to do what they want, and this would be a huge step by
the federal government that many would oppose.
2. Recreational markets are shut down
Medical marijuana | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Scenario number two would more or less be a return to the gray market
that existed prior to Colorado and Washington passing legalization
measures. This would allow medical marijuana to continue under existing
state laws, but stop the recreational industry completely. For a long
time, this was how the cannabis industry operated — through collective
gardens and permissions from doctors granting access to medical
marijuana. If this were to happen, things would look a lot like they did
a decade ago.
3. States with current laws are left alone, but new states are targeted
A pro-legalization sticker | Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Under scenario three, the Trump administration would clamp down on
any new legalization legislation, but grandfather in existing laws. If
this were to happen, the states that currently allow for recreational
use — the entire West Coast, and a few others — would be the only places
where recreational users could get away with it. This doesn’t seem all
that likely either, as it would effectively see the federal government
allowing lawbreaking in certain places but not others.
It would, however, allow Trump’s team to toe the line of respecting
state’s rights. Although, they would simultaneously not be respecting
those who wish to push through new legislation.
4. Nothing changes
Cannabis in glass jars | iStock.com
If Trump decides to do nothing at all regarding marijuana, then the
status quo would remain untouched. As a result, the industry would
continue to grow and develop as it has been. This is more or less the
approach Obama’s administration took — by letting the states sort it out
for themselves.
There’s a good chance we might see this happen, as
Trump may not want to rattle Republicans with a big show of federal
force and also respect the states’ ability to self-govern.
5. President Trump openly supports the industry
President-elect Donald Trump gives a thumbs up | Drew Angerer/Getty Images
The final scenario laid out by the report is one in which President
Trump comes out in full support of the cannabis industry. This seems
highly unlikely, despite how Trump personally feels about cannabis. He
now has to assume the role of politician and has to walk a fine line.
Still, even if he does come out in support, he can’t unilaterally
dismantle federal laws concerning marijuana. It would be a good sign for
the industry, however, and pretty much guarantee that growth would
continue unimpeded throughout Trump’s presidency.
No comments:
Post a Comment