Legal marijuana would lead to more use, poll says

More young Ontarians say they're likely to try drug, but overall consumption won't change much

More young adults in Ontario say they would smoke marijuana if the federal government legalizes the drug, according to a new public opinion poll.

By Ben Spurr

More young adults in Ontario say they would smoke marijuana if the federal government legalizes the drug, according to a new public opinion poll. 

The provincewide survey, released exclusively to the Star by Forum Research, found that 29 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34 reported using weed in the past year. But 39 per cent of people in the same demographic said they would likely take the drug if it were legal. 

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said the increase was not unexpected, given that young people generally have a more permissive attitude toward pot. 

He noted that overall, it doesn't appear that legalization would prompt a sharp uptake in marijuana use. Only 22 per cent of respondents of all ages said they would use pot if the law were changed, a small change from the 17 per cent who said they consumed the drug in the past year. 

"(Legalization) is not going to be the great cultural revolution that people are thinking it's going to be," Bozinoff said. "When you look at how many are using it now and how many would use it when it's legal, it's not that many people at the end of the day." 

In its inaugural speech from the throne earlier this month, the new Liberal government promised to "legalize, regulate and restrict access to marijuana." The poll found that a majority of Ontarians, or 56 per cent, support that goal. 

But though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said regulating the drug will help keep it out of the hands of minors, he has yet to outline what an overhauled legal regime would look like. 

Key questions such as who would be authorized to sell pot and how much it would be taxed will be determined by a government task force that will take input from experts in public health, substance abuse and law enforcement. 

The Forum poll found, among Ontarians, setting up special dispensaries would be the most popular way to facilitate legal pot sales, with 57 per cent of respondents saying they approved of that model. 

Almost half, or 47 per cent, said they disapproved of a plan, floated by Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne last week, to sell marijuana through provincially owned liquor stores. But almost as many, 44 per cent, said they liked the idea. 

Wynne has argued the LCBO is a natural fit for the retail pot business because its unionized employees have experience distributing and selling a controlled substance. 

The poll found that only 15 per cent of respondents were in favour of allowing marijuana sales at corner stores. 

In Colorado, Oregon and Washington, three U.S. states that have recently legalized pot, marijuana is sold through licensed specialty stores or dispensaries. 

Although a solid majority of Ontarians backs the legalization of marijuana, most respondents still believe there is no place for pot in the public sphere. Nearly six in 10 said that smoking marijuana should be allowed only in private spaces. 

Support for legalization also varies widely depending on which political party Ontarians support. Only 32 per cent of Progressive Conservative voters want to end the prohibition. They were also the least likely to report using pot themselves. 

The Progressive Conservatives have lost four successive elections, and Bozinoff said the marijuana debate is a "flagship issue" that shows how difficult it could be for the party's leaders to make electoral gains without abandoning their base.

"It just shows that the Tories are still marching to their own drummer on social issues," he said. 

"If they want to grow the party and get out of their second-place status, they've got to move to the centre. 

But their core on social issues is very conservative."

The survey of 1,003 randomly selected Ontario adults was conducted by interactive voice response on Dec. 20. Results are considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 

Some data have been statistically weighted by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population as reflected in census data. Poll results are housed in the data library of the University of Toronto political science department.