State officials estimated Issue 3's proposed marijuana
industry would generate between $133 million and $293.3 million in
annual tax revenue, far less than estimates by ResponsibleOhio, the
group pushing the measure.
(Elaine Thompson, Associated Press)
By
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- If Issue 3 passes, Ohio's legal marijuana industry would generate between $133 million and $293.3 million in tax revenue for local governments, according to the Ohio Office of Budget and Management.
Both those figures are far below estimates from ResponsibleOhio, the political action committee behind Issue 3. Studies commissioned by ResponsibleOhio projected the industry would generate $554 million in annual revenue after four years, when the maximum number of 1,159 retail stores would be open.
Ohio law requires the Office of Budget and Management and Department Taxation to analyze taxpayer costs of proposed constitutional amendments.
In a report released Friday, Tax Commissioner Joe Testa estimated about 180 metric tons of marijuana would be sold each year once the industry is fully functioning, with sales at $2 billion a year.
Issue 3 would tax marijuana sales at each level of the supply chain -- 15 percent on gross revenues of wholesalers, 15 percent on marijuana product manufacturers, and 5 percent on retail transactions. Issue 3 would limit growing commercial marijuana to 10 sites, owned by campaign investors, and limit retail locations to one per 10,000 Ohio residents, or about 1,150.
The tax department report calculated the size of the current illegal market based on 2013 data from the National Survey on Drug Abuse and Health conducted by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The analysis then estimated how many grams of marijuana people consumed based on how often they said they used the drug.
The lower end of its estimate -- $133 million -- assumed the legal marijuana market would capture 50 percent of the sales of the current illegal marijuana market and several marijuana businesses would be involved at multiple levels of the industry, accounting for less tax revenue. The upper end -- $293.3 million -- assumed the legal market would capture 70 percent of the illegal market.
That pot of money would be split three ways -- to cities and townships, to counties, and to a new regulatory agency, the Marijuana Control Commission. Cities and townships would receive between $73.1 million and $161.3 million and counties would receive between $39.9 million and $88 million.
The Marijuana Control Commission would receive between $19.9 million and $44 million. Testa estimated $8.8 million of that would fund the commission's duties and $17 million would be spent on mental health and addiction services -- an amount derived from spending in Colorado, which began recreational marijuana sales in 2013.
The state budget office estimated the commission would need 86 full time employees to license marijuana establishments and enforce marijuana laws.
ResponsibleOhio Executive Director Ian James said the state's estimates were a "wildly pessimistic projection" but still would generate new funding for cities and counties without raising taxes on all Ohioans.
"That's $300 million in much-needed revenue to our communities that hasn't been seen in previous years," James said in a statement. "Had the state utilized the federal usage data, they would have found our projection of $554 million a year to be accurate."
The study commissioned by ResponsibleOhio used the same marijuana use data as the state, but multiplied usage by a slightly larger rate to account for underreporting use in the survey. ResponsibleOhio's study included people who used at least once a year but less than once a month. ResponsibleOhio's economic study assumed the legal market would capture 84 percent of the illegal market.
The study also estimated an ounce of marijuana cost $281.51, while the state estimated a black market price of $270 per ounce.
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