Likely Effects Of Legalization

LIKELY EFFECTS OF LEGALIZATION

Prohibitionists frequently argue that marijuana legalization would not be a panacea for the United States's drug problems. In addition, problems arising from illicit trafficking in cocaine, heroin, PCP, methamphetamine, and other drugs might still occur, as would problems arising from simple use of marijuana. The prohibitionists also argue that legalization would send the message that marijuana is good for young people to use and abuse. These may be legitimate concerns and should be addressed.

The question, however, remains: what would be the real effect, on the individual and on society, of legalizing marijuana?
There are four areas of concern that must be addressed in assessing any proposal to legalize marijuana: what might a model legalization scheme look like; the effect on the criminal justice system; the financial impact; and the impact on society from legal availability of marijuana, especially as regards the use of drugs.

A MODEL SYSTEM
One of the most frequent arguments heard against legalization is the speculation over what Madison Avenue would do with drugs like marijuana or cocaine. The most important point to stress is that the system of legal marijuana need not resemble the system for either tobacco or alcohol. Those models of legalization are examples of how not to regulate and discourage use and abuse.

The American experience with these drugs and their legalization is largely responsible for the bitter taste left by discussion of drug legalization. The spectre of a marijuana "Marlboro Man" or "Buds McKenzie" attracting young people, minorities, and other populations at highest risk for drug abuse into using marijuana is frightening for most citizens. Of course, the actual blame legitimately belonging to these advertising icons is debatable. Yet, the imagery forms a frightening picture for many average citizens.

A comparison of the effects of the repeal of alcohol prohibition in the United States and in England may shed some light on how best to avoid an explosion in marijuana use. It is true that, in the United States, when alcohol prohibition was repealed, the death rate from liver cirrhosis rose dramatically. This leading indicator of alcohol abuse, by contrast, remained steady in the United Kingdom for several years following repeal of their wartime prohibition.

An analysis by Milton Terris, M.D., contends that a combination of strict limits on hours of availability, increasingly high taxes, anti-alcohol education, and treatment of alcoholics, was responsible for the success of the British system. In the United Kingdom, the death rate from cirrhosis actually declined for several years after prohibition's repeal (Terris, 1967).

In contrast, the American system of laissez-faire legalization, combined with the alcohol industry's largely successful opposition to antialcohol education efforts, seemed to create an immediate, continuing increase in the number of cirrhosis deaths in the United States.
This is not an absolute gauge of the success or failure of either the British or the American system, yet it does give an indication that more effective approaches exist.
Applying the lessons of history to the marijuana laws, we can observe that any attempt to repeal marijuana prohibition must be approached carefully. For instance, granting the existence of problems with alcohol and tobacco legalization, it may be appropriate to first reform those systems of regulation and control in order to facilitate the effort to discourage use of those two drugs.

Then, after making these changes, a similar system should be put in place that would regulate and control the use, production, and distribution of marijuana, while at the same time discouraging abuse and first use of marijuana.
Such discouraging mechanisms include, yet are not limited to, the following: age limits; restrictions against some forms of marketing and merchandising that may be seen as glamorizing the drug; a complete ban on advertising; prominent display of medically legitimate health warnings; and pricing structures that discourage consumption while denying criminal drug dealers market supremacy.

The system for legal marijuana would need to be flexible, since the effects of marijuana legalization, pro and con, can only be guessed at. Yet, it is vital to get past initial objections and begin coming to grips with the practical necessities of dealing with drugs.
It is easy to dismiss the notion of marijuana legalization as long as no plan has been officially formulated at the federal level to handle such a change in policy.
Efforts at the federal level should thus be directed toward developing a scheme for marijuana distribution, regulation, and control that would be acceptable to a plurality of the public. States would then have the option of adopting such a system or maintaining some sort of prohibition, much as states have the option of prohibiting alcohol sales and production.

Appropriate taxes and user fees would be levied in order to fund substance abuse prevention efforts. Such a system, with appropriate discouraging mechanisms built in, would send the message that marijuana is no more acceptable when legal than it was when illegal. It is only the current methods of control that are inappropriate and must be altered.
Once the stigma of criminalization is removed, the relatively few users who develop abuse or dependence problems could come forward and get help. Taking the marijuana market out of criminal hands would ensure purity, quality controls, and the like. It would also eliminate the possibility that the dealer, motivated by greed, would entice the marijuana user to try harder, more dangerous (and more profitable) drugs.

CRIME/PRISONS
The most obvious area to feel the impact of the legalization of marijuana is the criminal justice system. There are two groups of offenses that must be looked at in this context: (1) actual drug offenses, e.g., possession, cultivation/production, sale; and (2) drug-related offenses, e.g., theft and other property crimes for gain, and trafficking-related violence.

In terms of the first group of offenses, the role of marijuana is unusual. The number of persons actually incarcerated for simple possession of marijuana is small compared to the total number of prison and jail inmates in the United States. Yet, arrests for simple marijuana possession make up a large part of total annual drug arrests (see above). A great deal of police and court time is squandered pursuing throwaway arrests.
One of the most pressing problems that this situation creates is the impression of selective enforcement of the laws. This problem was noted as early as 1972 in the Shaffer Commission's report.

It states: "On top of all this is the distinct impression among the youth that some police may use the marihuana laws to arrest people they don't like for other reasons, whether it be their politics, their hair style or their ethnic background. Whether or not such selectivity actually exists, it is perceived to exist" (National Commission on Marihuana and Drug Abuse, 1972).
This impression is inevitable when the number of marijuana arrests is compared to the number of marijuana users. Even using the government's conservative estimate of marijuana users (12 million regular users), only 2% or 3% of these people are arrested each year. The law is violated with impunity, the only harm done being directed against the offender herself or himself. It is thus questionable what business the state has interfering in the private affairs of some individuals based on their use of a weed.

The other aspect of drugs and crime—crimes committed under the influence of a drug—is one about which there is some confusion. A great deal of concern is expressed over the involvement of illegal drugs in crimes. As the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics reported in 1988, "Concern over the use of drugs and a belief that such use leads to criminal activity has long been an issue in American society" (Innes, 1988). Yet, the government's own statistics contradict, not support, this relationship.

A new program for measuring the prevalence of drug use among arrestees, the Drug Use Forecasting (DUF) program of the Department of Justice, reveals that anywhere from 53% to 90% of male arrestees test positive for illicit drugs. This statistic is of dubious value, however, since only a fraction of the nation's total annual arrests result in adjudications of guilt (U.S. Department of Justice, 1989).
No data is available on the disposition of the cases included in the DUF program. It is thus impossible to know the number of persons testing positive who are actually guilty of any crimes. It is also possible that DUF's results are skewed by the inclusion of a number of small-scale drug arrests, including possession offenses, in the DUF program reports.

Studies on state prison inmates reveal some connection between daily use of heroin or cocaine and property crime, although only about one-third of the total number of these offenders was reported to be under the influence of these drugs at the time of their offense. A far stronger connection was found between use of alcohol and crime, particularly violent crime. At least 40% of the violent offenders were reported to have been under the influence of alcohol at the time of their offense (Innes, 1988).

The chicken-and-the-egg discussion over which comes first also arises when discussing drug use and crime. As the Bureau of Justice Statistics notes:
An alternative view of the relationship between drugs and crime holds that drug use does not directly cause criminal behavior, but the same circumstances that might lead a person to begin committing crimes may also contribute to the development of drug habits. For example, social conditions, including poverty and discrimination, may limit opportunity and reduce an individual's investment in society, leading to both drug abuse and criminal behavior.

Also, some people enjoy taking risks and are willing, for whatever reasons, to violate laws or norms, or they seek possessions or experiences that are not available by legitimate means. The use of drugs, especially on a regular basis, may not occur among such persons until after they have begun a career of criminal activity.
Drug use may thus be only part of a more general lifestyle that also includes other types of criminal activity.... (F)or some prison inmates drug use began prior to other criminal activity and may have contributed, either by lowering inhibitions or by generating a need for money, to a developing criminal career. For many others, drug use, particularly regular use of a major drug, started only after their criminal careers had begun. (Innes, 1988)


TAX REVENUE
The impact marijuana legalization would have on tax revenues would be felt in two ways. First, the tax money currently funding efforts at marijuana suppression and eradication would be redirected. This much is obvious, since marijuana would no longer be contraband.
How this funding redirection would effect overall antidrug spending is difficult to gauge. There might not necessarily be a "peace dividend." The funds would need to go to enforcement of other drug laws; those against cocaine, heroin, PCP, and hard drugs, and whatever other drugs are still illegal.

In addition, some funds would need to be devoted to the regulatory system set up to control production and distribution, at the state and federal levels. This funding need would eventually be offset by taxes on both the marijuana sales as well as taxes on the income derived from such sales, licensing fees, and so on.
It is also difficult to measure just how removing marijuana from the list of crimes that our police enforce would effect police functions and efficiency.
Noting the tremendous number of marijuana possession arrests performed each year, it is evident that some police time could be redirected toward dealing with serious problems and violent crimes. This also means clearing the courts, jails, and prisons of marijuana offenders-not only users, who would no longer be criminals, but also dealers and cultivators, who would be outmoded and put out of business.

Currently, control over the marijuana market is left in the hands of the criminal black market. As such, proceeds from marijuana sales are kept in the underground economy. The profits go untaxed, and the money generated is kept off the books. Fortune magazine estimated the potential tax earnings from legal marijuana sales at $11 billion per year, and that only accounts for taxes on the marijuana, not including taxes on the income generated by the legal sellers, distributors, and producers (Kupfer, 1988).
Some opponents of legalization argue that it is inappropriate for society to profit from drug use. Such a policy, it is argued, puts the state into the position of promoting drug use.

Legalization supporters counter that people in general use drugs of one kind or another, mostly legal ones. Thus, the responsibility of society is to ensure that relatively safe drugs are available, although discouraged, while the relatively dangerous drugs should be less available and more actively discouraged. The United States already taxes alcohol and tobacco, the two worst public health problems our society faces. Society would profit tremendously from legal marijuana sales if we decide to take advantage of the market already in existence.

IMPACT ON SOCIETY, DRUG USE

Finally, what would a society with legal marijuana look like, and what would be the impact on drug use in general? We can look toward The Netherlands for part of the answer, although we would certainly not get the full picture since marijuana and hashish are still officially illegal in The Netherlands. Their policy of tolerance toward soft drugs has, however, resulted in effective decriminalization of use and transfer of small amounts of cannabis.
In spite of this acceptance of cannabis, use rates by both youth and adults are much lower than the reported rates in other European countries or in the United States (van der Wal, 1985; van de Wijngaart, 1987). In addition, the rate of heroin addiction in The Netherlands is reported to be slowly decreasing from its current estimated rate of 0. 14% (much lower than the United States), and the crime rate, stable since 1984, may be falling (Drug Abuse Education Newsletter, 1988).

While it is true that the United States is not The Netherlands, the example of the Dutch system provides at least an indication that marijuana legalization would not be the disaster that opponents say it would be. Indeed, if marijuana legalization means people would avoid use of alcohol or hard drugs and would use marijuana instead, the net result would be positive, since the harm both to the user and the society would be less.
Critics claim that the number of marijuana users would increase after legalization. It must be conceded that this claim may be true in some respects, although the net result would hardly be the disaster opponents predict. After marijuana legalization there will be an increase in the number of people willing to admit that they are marijuana users, because a significant number of users will no longer fear admitting their use.

NORML estimates that there are currently some 30 to 50 million regular marijuana users in the United States, many more than the government's reported 11.8 million. Thus, an initial explosion in the number of users is likely, is no cause for alarm, and is easily understood.
Some "new" users who really would be using marijuana for the first time may formerly have been users of alcohol, a drug that is more dangerous than marijuana. Although these people would still be using a drug, they would be doing less damage to themselves than they would have otherwise. Thus, less harm would result from their drug use than would have occurred under marijuana prohibition.

It is likely that a period of a few years would be needed to stabilize the marijuana using population, and to begin reducing the number of users. Yet as the example of The Netherlands proves, it is possible to reduce the number of users without imposing criminal or even civil penalties against them. The first problem is getting a true handle on the extent of marijuana use.
There would probably be a need for a vigorous campaign to reduce the risk of abuse and to discourage first use. The experience of American society with reduction of tobacco use should provide the groundwork for setting up a discouragement campaign against marijuana use.

It is difficult to predict the effects of legalization precisely because we have so little experience at legalizing a social drug. The example of the repeal of alcohol prohibition, as noted above, left a bitter taste because of the immediate rise in abuse indicators, specifically cirrhosis deaths. Arguably, American society has learned a great deal in the more than 50 years since alcohol became legal. NORML contends that the United States has matured since then, and that a responsible plan for production, distribution, and regulation of marijuana can be developed; indeed, such a plan was formulated in 1981 (Evans et al., 1981).

The concern over what message is being sent by legalizing a drug is understandable, and legitimate. The message, however, is not a negative one. The drug suggested for legalization is marijuana, a reasonably safe drug if used responsibly, a drug that has never caused an overdose death (Grinspoon, 1987; Young, 1988).
Legalization with age limits for purchase and use is the only way to prevent underage use; few criminal dealers ask for proof of I.D. before making a sale. Indeed, the concern should be over what message is sent when society makes alcohol and tobacco, both deadly and addictive, legally available, and prohibits marijuana, a relatively less dangerous drug.
The message is obviously not one of concern for the society at large, nor for the health of the individual user. At best, no intelligible message is discerned. At worst, the society is thought of as hypocritical and culturally biased.